Actualización y validación del riesgo cardiovascular de por vida en España: IBERLIFERISK2 / Update and validation of the lifetime cardiovascular risk in Spain: IBERLIFERISK2

Introducción: La función para estimar el riesgo cardiovascular de por vida en España –IBERLIFERISK– en población laboral obtuvo una discriminación satisfactoria; se registró una ligera sobreestimación del riesgo en hombres y una infraestimación del riesgo en mujeres. Objetivo: Recalibrar la ecuación de riesgo de por vida actual tras alargar 3 años el seguimiento. Métodos: Estudio de cohortes retrospectivo. Se incluyeron 762.058 trabajadores que realizaron un examen de salud laboral entre los años 2004 y 2007. Se evaluaron todos los episodios de incapacidad temporal y mortalidad cardiovascular hasta diciembre de 2017. Se combinaron los modelos de regresión para tener en cuenta la presencia de riesgos competitivos en la estimación del riesgo cardiovascular en una cohorte de derivación. La calibración se realizó representando gráficamente la proporción de eventos esperados y observados a los 10 años de seguimiento en la cohorte de validación estratificando por deciles de riesgo y calculando el estadístico Z de Spiegelhalter. La discriminación se evaluó de forma gráfica mediante la curva Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) y calculando el índice C de Harrell. Resultados: La media de edad fue de 35,48 años (DE 10,56). El 71,14% eran hombres. El índice C de Harrell fue de 0,78 (IC 95% 0,76-0,79) en hombres y de 0,73 (IC 95% 0,69-0,77) en mujeres. En general, se registró un ligero grado de infraestimación en mujeres y de sobreestimación en hombres en el último decil de riesgo, aunque el estadístico Z de Spiegelhalter no resultó estadísticamente significativo en ambos sexos (p>0,05). Conclusiones: El modelo actualizado continúa discriminando satisfactoriamente, aunque la calibración del modelo no ha mejorado sustancialmente con la nueva actualización.(AU)

Introduction: The function to estimate lifetime cardiovascular risk –IBERLIFERISK– in Spanish working population, obtained a satisfactory discrimination; however, there was a slight overestimation of the risk in men and an underestimation of the risk in women. Objective: To recalibrate the current lifetime risk equation after extending the follow-up by 3 years. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. 762.058 workers who underwent an occupational health examination between 2004 and 2007 were included. All episodes of temporary sickness and cardiovascular mortality up to December 2017 were evaluated. Regression models were combined to take into account the presence of competing risks in estimating cardiovascular risk in the derivation cohort. Calibration was performed by graphically representing the proportion of expected and observed events at 10 years of follow-up in the validation cohort, stratifying by risk deciles and calculating the Spiegelhalter Z statistic. Discrimination was evaluated graphically using the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) and calculating Harrell's C index. Results: The mean age was 35.48 years (SD 10.56). 71.14% were men. Harrell's C index was 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.79) in men and 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77) in women. In general, there was a slight degree of underestimation in women and overestimation in men in the last decile of risk, although the Spiegelhalter Z statistic was not statistically significant in both sexes (p>0.05). Conclusions: The updated model continues to discriminate satisfactorily, although the model's calibration has not substantially improved with the new update.(AU)

Update and validation of the lifetime cardiovascular risk in Spain: IBERLIFERISK2. / Actualización y validación del riesgo cardiovascular de por vida en España: IBERLIFERISK2.

INTRODUCTION: The function to estimate lifetime cardiovascular risk -IBERLIFERISK- in Spanish working population, obtained a satisfactory discrimination; however, there was a slight overestimation of the risk in men and an underestimation of the risk in women. OBJECTIVE: To recalibrate the current lifetime risk equation after extending the follow-up by 3 years. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study. 762.058 workers who underwent an occupational health examination between 2004 and 2007 were included. All episodes of temporary sickness and cardiovascular mortality up to December 2017 were evaluated. Regression models were combined to take into account the presence of competing risks in estimating cardiovascular risk in the derivation cohort. Calibration was performed by graphically representing the proportion of expected and observed events at 10 years of follow-up in the validation cohort, stratifying by risk deciles and calculating the Spiegelhalter Z statistic. Discrimination was evaluated graphically using the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) and calculating Harrell's C index. RESULTS: The mean age was 35.48 years (SD 10.56). 71.14% were men. Harrell's C index was 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.79) in men and 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77) in women. In general, there was a slight degree of underestimation in women and overestimation in men in the last decile of risk, although the Spiegelhalter Z statistic was not statistically significant in both sexes (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The updated model continues to discriminate satisfactorily, although the model's calibration has not substantially improved with the new update.